After what felt like years of waiting, UFC 249 finally arrived - and it more than lived up to the hype. Read on for results & analysis.
May 10 Results and Analysis
With UFC 249 now having come and gone, we take a look at the results and analyze the fallout from the incredible night in Jacksonville Florida. The original preview article remains unchanged, with results and analysis added in red following each fight's section.
After the turmoil of the last few months that included shifting venues, remixed fights, and political grandstanding, the UFC is finally set to grace our television sets once again on May 9.
With a ridiculously stacked card, UFC 249 looks to be one of the best cards (on paper) in UFC history despite the trials and tribulations the UFC and its fighters have gone through making this event come together.
Unfortunately, the massive event will go down in front of empty seats and the big fight atmosphere that typically fuels such a deep card will be replaced by that of an eerily quiet arena - luckily that doesn't mean the fights themselves will be any less violent or entertaining.
With the UFC largely being the only game in town and the eyes of the sports-deprived world turning to mixed martial arts to satiate their appetites, now's the perfect time to preview the action and analyze the matchups going down on Saturday night.
Of course, this preview assumes the fighters all show up and perform largely the same as they normally would - given the circumstances, it's likely that many fighters had less-than-optimal training camps thanks to the closing of gyms and their limited ability to train with others, not to mention the added stresses and uncertainties they've had to deal with over the past weeks.
That being said, it's times like these that show us how special fighters truly are.
So without further ado, let's break down some fights.
ESPN+/Fight Pass Early Prelims
Light Heavyweight (205) Bout
Ryan "Superman" Spann (17-5) vs. "Smilin" Sam Alvey (33-13 1NC)
An overlooked scrap on such a massive card, the curtain jerker for UFC 249 features everyone's favourite overly happy, lanky ginger, "Smilin" Sam Alvey in his desperate bid to try and keep his spot on the roster.
Once considered a feared knockout artist, Alvey has since been exposed as a rather one-note, awkward striker that looks very out of sorts when his opponents aren't recklessly charging at him and allowing him to land his counter right hook.
As a result, the highly active (he has had 18 fights in five years with the promotion) Alvey is now regularly involved in extremely tepid, dry affairs that have you begging for someone to do something for the entirety of their runtime.
After making a name for himself as an exciting slugger given his early opponents would charge him and get faceplanted, he has since finished just one of his last five wins and is on a three fight losing streak, which saw him knocked out by Jimmy Crute (kind of) and an aged Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
One would have to assume that a fourth consecutive loss would spell an end to Alvey's UFC tenure, and the UFC did him no favours with this latest matchup.
A 6'5 and athletic light heavyweight, Ryan Spann has now come into his own at 28 years of age.
Cutting his teeth in smaller promotons in Texas and Louisiana, Spann made a name for himself as a submission finisher before a rough patch saw him lose three of five outings to bring his record to 10-4 - the prospect was regardless granted an opportunity on the first season of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series.
Facing off against powerful striker Karl Roberson, Spann was massacred in just 20 seconds by a barrage of elbows, ending his UFC aspirations emphatically. At least for a little while.
Going back to the drawing board, Spann would turn things around and greatly improve his standup game in the process, winning three straight fights in the highly-touted LFA organization and capturing their light heavyweight title.
Having worked his way back onto the series, Spann was given another shot on the Contender Series' second season; this time, Spann would crack his opponent and tap him out via a guillotine in just 26 seconds to secure a contract with the UFC.
From there, Spann has handily won his three outings in the Octagon, with two coming via finish (including a brutal knockout over the afforementioned Antonio Rogerio Nogueira).
Spann is now riding a seven fight winning streak with six finishes evenly split between submissions and knockouts, showing off his well-rounded attack and vastly improved overall game.
Given his technical advances on the feet combined with his range and power, even in striking range (which is where Alvey will no doubt want to contest this fight) he appears to have a major advantage. Barring a severe miscalculation from Spann, this fight should serve as another dominant finish to add to a rising prospect's highlight reel.
Official Pick: Ryan Spann by first round (T)KO (sorry Sam)
Results: Ryan Spann won by unanimous decision
The night's opening bout surprised in several ways - for one, Spann looked rather clumsy and laboured compared to his recent outings and wasted a lot of energy early trying to drag Alvey to the mat. Alvey's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet saved him early and he showed improvements in his output as well, leading to a surprisingly fun fight.
The third round was particularly fun as Spann looked to be gassing out - Alvey fought for his career and poured on the pressure, rocking Spann more than once and having him in all sorts of trouble right before the bell sounded - it ended up being too little, too late to swing the bout into his favour, but given his activity and persona it'd be nice to see Alvey granted one last shot to keep his spot on the roster.
Featherweight (145) Bout
Bryce "Thug Nasty" Mitchell (12-0) vs. Charles Rosa (12-3)
Once known almost exclusively for his unfortunate mishap with a power drill, "Thug Nasty" has since become even more well known for his in-cage exploits, most notably his brutal twister submission of Matt Sayles late last year.
Primarily a grappler, Mitchell has shown excellent submission skills throughout his career and likes to push a ridiculous pace on his opponents, which is what has propelled him to a sterling 12-0 record (though it should be noted he did lose during The Ultimate Fighter).
Mitchell has an extremely tough test standing in front of him however in the form of Charles Rosa.
A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Ricardo Liborio, Rosa is a submission specialist himself that may be more than a match for Mitchell and has shown a more capable striking game compared to his younger opponent thus far.
While his 3-3 record in the UFC isn't exactly inspiring, Rosa has earned Fight of the Night honours on three occassions (ironically, all three in the bouts he lost) and two of his losses were to top talent - a close split decision to Yair Rodriguez and a late TKO loss to Shane Burgos.
Rosa's last bout saw him face off against an extremely heavy top-game specialist in Manny Bermudez, who also missed weight by three pounds for their featherweight clash. The 14-1 Bermudez wasted no time taking Rosa to the ground but was unable to mount much offense before being caught in a slick armbar and finished just midway through the opening round, to the shock of many.
The win showed off just how dangerous Rosa is on the ground and against a fighter somewhat similar in style to Mitchell - the chances of a submission win for Rosa also look promising considering Mitchell's loss in the TUF house was a submission defeat to the rather unimpressive Brad Katona.
Of course, Mitchell has greatly improved since then and should he be able to avoid Rosa's submissions, his pace and tenacity will prove difficult to overcome for Rosa, who has been shown to struggle with that type of fight in his prior outing against Shane Burgos.
Personally I'll lean in Mitchell's favour but don't be surprised if Rosa picks up a submission victory to spoil the undefeated prospect's party.
Official Pick: Bryce Mitchell by decision
Results: Bryce Mitchell won via unanimous decision
Wow, has "Thug Nasty" continued to impress. The 25 year old put on a show yesterday by putting on an absolute clinic on Rosa, a Ricardo Liborio-trained BJJ black belt.
Despite the fight occurring entirely on the mat, Mitchell's constant submission attempts with nasty elbows and punches sprinkled in kept things entertaining and his extremely impressive ability to continually find twister attempts was just as amazing as it was baffling. A move that's only been successful twice in UFC history, Rosa found himself in twister position three times over the course of as many rounds and at the end of the second, Mitchell had secured the position and likely would have gotten a tap had he had more time.
The way he handled such an accomplished grappler was supremely impressive and should see Mitchell earn himself a top-15 fighter in the near future to coincide with his new Reebok camo shorts.
Welterweight (170) Bout
Vicente "The Silent Assassin" Luque (17-7-1) vs. Niko "The Hybrid" Price (14-3 1NC)
Just three fights in and we're already looking at a matchup that on any other card would be a virtual lock for Fight of the Night.
Starting with "The Silent Assassin", the quiet and mild-mannered Brazilian does more than his fair share of speaking when the cage door closes - continuous forward momentum, an onslaught of clean combinations, and ridiculous toughness are staples of Luque's game.
Luque's path to becoming a force of nature was an arduous one - cutting his teeth in Brazilian promotions, by the time his run on the 21st installment of The Ultimate Fighter came to an end and his lackluster UFC debut saw him laid on by a wrestler for three rounds, Luque's rather dismal 7-5-1 record didn't do his potential any justice.
His potential was still evident to those who looked however - he did knock out future light heavyweight title challenger Thiago Santos in a middleweight fight in Brazil after all, and had shown a ton of promise during his stint in the TUF house.
Under the tutelage of kickboxing great Henri Hooft, Luque finally began putting everything together and showing the world just how loud the Silent Assassin could be.
Utilizing excellent ringcraft and an always-forward pressuring style, Luque began to run roughshod through the welterweight division on his path to the top.
Vicente would start off the first of his two impressive finish streaks in the UFC by scoring four brilliant finishes in as many fights - he avenged a controversial decision loss from his stay in the TUF house by choking Hayder Hassan to sleep in two minutes, smashed an overmatched opponent before locking up his favourite D'Arce choke submission, slumped Hector Urbina with a vicious barrage on the feet, then skewered top-15 ranked Belal Muhammad with a beautiful short left hook, announcing himself as a legitimate threat to the elite in the stacked welterweight division.
Another wrestling-centric setback stopped Luque's momentum in its tracks as he lost a dull decision to the highly overlooked (but criminally boring) Leon Edwards, but six months later Luque would erase all memory of that and would renew his upward momentum by kicking off an even more impressive winning streak.
Facing a wildly aggressive undefeated knockout artist, Luque took on none other than Niko Price in his next outing. The two strikers traded heavy leather for the first round, both men getting their shots in throughout, though Luque's forward pressure and ring cutting gave him the advantage in the slugfest as he systematically broke down the undefeated slugger.
In the second round, a torrent of strikes finally sent Price to the canvas but "The Hybrid" refused to quit, instead managing to work his way back up to his feet only for Luque to lock up his signature D'Arce choke to close the show early in the second round. It was a beautiful finish and an impressive performance from the rising Brazilian star.
Vicente would go on to knock out his next two opponents, Chad Laprise and Jalin Turner, each in the opening round. He followed that up with a Fight of the Year runner-up against Bryan Barbarena where he scored a brutal knockout with just six seconds remaining on the clock, then scored another first round knockout over a late replacement opponent to run his knockout streak up to four and his finishing streak up to five.
Facing off against the tough-as-nails Mike Perry, Luque engaged in another action-packed brawl, picking up a close decision win following a back-and-forth war which left Perry's nose an absolute disaster courtesy of a late knee from Luque, though Perry somehow managed to survive and make it to the scorecards.
His last outing was another war, this time a technical striking affair with Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson.
Although he started off well, Wonderboy soon took over thanks to his extremely effective distance striking and precision. Luque held his own even after getting dropped in the third, once again reinforcing his status as one of the toughest and most exciting fighters on the roster even if he did leave the cage with a loss.
At UFC 249, Luque will once again face Niko Price inside the Octagon.
Similarly to Luque, "The Hybrid" has made himself a fan-favourite action fighter thanks to his hyper-aggressive (often to the point of recklessness) style and flair for brilliant finishes.
Starting off in a smaller promotion in his native Florida, Price racked up eight straight wins with all but one coming via finish to earn his shot in the UFC, where he would quickly dominate failed prospect Brandon Thatch.
In a scrap against Brandon Morono, Price would starch his opponent right at the bell to signal the end of the second round, earning a truly rare non-corner stoppage knockout at exactly 5:00 of a round. Unfortunately, Price would fail his post-fight drug test for marijuana and as a result his win was overturned to a No Contest by the Texas commission (yes, up until recently commissions still did that shit for pot).
After stopping fellow action-fighter Alan Jouban in under two minutes, Price then ran into a fellow rising prospect, one Vicente Luque, who handed Price the first loss of his career.
Price would rebound with a submission win over George Sullivan before shocking everyone by delivering a virtually unheard of knockout via a hammerfist from his own back against Randy Brown.
Scoring a knockout from the bottom is extremely rare to begin with as it's incredibly difficult to generate power off your own back, and is almost always the result of an upkick; scoring a clean knockout from the canvas with a hammer fist of all things was as utterly bizarre as it was impressive.
Price's aggression and willingness to brawl got him into trouble in his next outing however, as Abdul Alhassan came out like a wrecking ball and slumped Price against the cage in just 43 seconds at UFC 228.
To the delight of fans, Niko vowed to remain a reckless brawler regardless of outcome and continued his scrappy ways against another fighter known for delivering his fair share of violence, Tim Means. The two winged elbows, knees, shins and fists at each other throughout the back-and-forth first round, with Means rocking Price as the seconds ticked away in the opening frame.
As Means backed Price against the fence and looked for a killing blow, Price nailed Means with a vicious right hand and sent the "Dirty Bird" crashing to the canvas and earned Price a beautiful first round knockout.
Unfortunately for the highly entertaining brawler, Price would run into another surging prospect in Geoff Neal, who picked apart the scrappy striker en route to a second round TKO while in Price's guard from hellacious ground and pound.
In his last outing, Price would once again delight the MMA world with an insane knockout from his own back, this time a brutal upkick knockout over everyone's favourite concussion recipient James Vick.
If there's one thing we know heading into a rematch between Luque and Price, it's that it's guaranteed to deliver fireworks for as long as it lasts.
Vicente has certainly found more consistent success in the UFC, but Price is as consistently entertaining as humanly possible and is seemingly incapable of having a boring fight. These two could fight each other twenty times and still manage to have MMA fans hyped for another meeting.
All that being said, Luque is a rightful favourite here - though both are knockout artists in their own right, Luque is the more polished and technically sound striker and although he's unlikely to take it to the floor unless following Price there after a knockdown, he should also have the advantage on the mat with his submission ability (exactly as we saw in their first meeting).
Price however can never be counted out of a fight and so long as he is conscious, he's a threat - whatever you do, don't miss this scrap.
Official Pick: Vicente Luque by second round (T)KO
Results: Vicente Luque won by third round TKO (doctor stoppage)
What. A. Fight.
A scrap that would have surely earned Fight of the Night honours on virtually ANY other card, Luque and Price beat the hell out of each other for the better part of 15-minutes - both men had the other hurt on multiple occasions, Price's output and variation of strikes holding up well against Luque's more technical approach.
In the third Price had appeared to be the fresher man and was having great success even though Luque continued to lance him with jabs and leg kicks, but a beautiful Golovkin-esque left hook swelled Price's right eye shut and dropped him, leading to a late doctor's stoppage.
While many doctor's stoppages can feel anticlimactic, the damage on his face left the doctor no choice and the war that preceeded it as well as the nasty left hook that dropped Price evaporated that feeling, instead earning a sense of relief that Price didn't suffer any further damage when the fight was clearly over. It certainly lived up to its lofty expectations and both men continue to be the most entertaining welterweights on the planet.
Middleweight (185) Bout
Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (26-8 1NC) vs. Uriah "Prime Time" Hall (15-9) - SCRATCHED
Ah, the good ol' middleweight division. If there's a bout on this card that has almost equal chance of being a boring 15-minute slog as it does of being an exciting fight and/or finish, it's this one.
MMA fans need no introduction to Jacare Souza - one of the most accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in mixed martial arts history, Souza is known for his ridiculous strength, power, durability, and devastating submission game.
The former Strikeforce champion has finished all but four of his victories and has been stopped just once in the last decade - whether he's tapping out Gegard Mousasi, Ed Herman, Tim Boetsch, and Chris Camozzi (twice, the poor bastard) or starching the likes of Chris Weidman (at the end of an absolute war that was seriously overlooked in 2018's Fight of the Year discussions), Derek Brunson (twice, the poor bastard), Vitor Belfort, and Yushin Okami, Jacare is one of the scariest fighters in the UFC's middleweight division.
Unfortunately the 40 year old is starting to show his age - after going 10-1 between 2012 and the beginning of 2017 with his lone blemish being an extremely close split decision loss to Yoel Romero, Jacare was knocked out by future champion Robert Whittaker and is now 2-4 in his last six outings.
Albeit of those losses was a controversial decision to Kelvin Gastelum, his last two outings saw him dominated (even on the ground) against Jack Hermansson before he stood around and looked at Jan Blachowicz for 25-minutes in his brief stint up at light heavyweight in November.
In Uriah Hall, we see a fighter of tremendous promise and an extremely gifted athlete that despite having flashes of brilliance, has never come close to realizing his true potential and is about as consistent as gas prices.
Hall made a name for himself by wrecking shop on The Ultimate Fighter's 17th season, where he scored an 8-second knockout which fractured his opponent's orbital, kicked off a TKO of one of the most promising fighters of the season with punches from his own guard, and delivered one of the most vicious and brutal knockouts in MMA history against poor Adam Cella.
Under the bright lights and expectations of the finale however, Hall was outworked by Kelvin Gastelum en route to a close decision loss, and followed it up with a similarly lackluster performance against John Howard, killing off his hype train as quickly as it started. He would slowly work his way back up, scoring four victories in his next five with three finishes, before catapulting himself back into contention talks by knocking out top contender Gegard Mousasi.
Finding himself once again the talk of the town, Hall's hype train was quickly derailed once more. His next outing resulted in a loss to future champ Robert Whittaker by decision, though it was hardly a terrible outing - his subsequent under-two minute trouncing at the hands of sloppy striker Derek Brunson however, was.
He then proceeded to get mauled in a rematch against Gegard Mousasi, which only further reinforced the sentiment amongst fans that Hall's biggest win was in fact a "fluke".
Facing a pink slip from the UFC following three straight losses, Hall was once again looking lost and getting touched up by the middling Krzysztof Jotko before a massive right hand in the second turned the tides and finally got Hall back on track with another knockout victory - only for him to then be fed to the young lion that is Paulo Costa.
Surprisingly, even though Hall was eventually broken down and knocked out in the second courtesy of Costa's ridiculous onslaught, he made a great accounting of himself in a stylistically nightmarish matchup and got plenty of his own licks in.
Since, Uriah once again scored a massive comeback knockout over prospect Bevon Lewis (who had largely dominated the first two rounds of action) and picked up a solid if unremarkable decision win over Antonio Carlos Junior in his last outing.
Against Jacare Souza, Hall has his work cut out for him - pressure has never been something he's been particularly adept at handling, and it's something that Jacare brings in spades. Hall's ground game, while serviceable, is nowhere near the level of Jacare's and he's had trouble keeping strong top players (like Carlos Junior and Gegard Mousasi) off of him in the past, something that will absolutely kill him here.
Souza is however slowing down and Hall is someone that can always turn the tide of a fight in an instant, making this an intriguing matchup - so long as both men show up and we aren't left with a patented Uriah Hall staring match, the likes of which Jacare just found himself in in his very last outing.
Souza has the advantage here even with his age and decline, and with near-even odds is a great bet if you're so inclined.
Official Pick: Jacare Souza by second or third round submission
MAY 8 UPDATE - The fight between Jacare Souza and Uriah Hall has been called off after Jacare tested positive for COVID-19. All other fighters tested negative.
Women's Strawweight (115) Bout
Carla "The Cookie Monster" Esparza (15-6) vs. Michelle "The Karate Hottie" Waterson (17-7)
The lone women's fight remaining on the card after both of the other scheduled female bouts fell through, Carla Esparza's clash with Michelle Waterson has been almost completely overlooked but still has plenty of potential to deliver an entertaining scrap.
The "Karate Hottie" is known for her flashy kicks and slick striking arsenal and has a solid jiu-jitsu game to boot. Although she's certainly a top fighter, with wins over the likes of Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Felice Herrig, Cortney Casey, Jessica Penne and Paige VanZant, she has turned into a bit of a Holly Holm-esque striker - someone who looks like they're doing a lot but is mostly just hitting air, particularly with her pretty-looking kicks that regularly miss their mark by a mile.
Known as a finisher in her earlier days, Waterson has been on a run of decisions lately, with a three-fight winning streak sandwiched between losses to Tecia Torres and most recently a beatdown at the hands of Joanna Jędrzejczyk.
A former atomweight (105 pounds) that's rather undersized for the division at 5'3, Waterson will finally get to face off with someone smaller than her in the form of the 5'1 "Cookie Monster".
Once known for being a boring wrestler with virtually no other skills to speak of, Esparza has worked hard in recent years to round out her game and as such has developed a surprisingly solid boxing game. While her defense isn't always spectacular, her quick hands and sharp combinations have managed to turn her into a much more well-rounded strawweight that is no longer destined to be a bore.
While her lay n' pray does still rear its ugly head, it's often as a result of her tiring later in fights or taking too much damage on the feet - if she could shore up those holes the former strawweight champion could very well see herself back in the contendership race.
Esparza's resume includes wins over the likes of Virna Jandiroba, Cynthia Calvillo, Maryna Moroz, Juliana Lima, Felice Herrig, Rose Namajunas and most recently, a close decision win over Alexa Grasso which earned her Fight of the Night honours (who would have ever guessed a few years ago that Esparza would ever capture a FOTN bonus?).
Conventional wisdom would assume that Esparza has the advantage against Waterson on the ground while Waterson would enjoy an advantage on the feet, but in this case it's not so clear cut - Esparza's boxing has improved leaps and bounds and if she smartly mixes in the threat of takedowns she could easily take over Waterson's range; likewise Waterson's activity off her back and slick BJJ could see her threaten submissions and potentially win a points battle against Esparza, who so often does next to nothing on top after she secures a takedown.
Both women have also shown a tendency to slow down as fights wear on, though Esparza's lay-and-pray tactics are easier to score with when tired than attacks off of the bottom.
This is a pick-em fight and could easily go either way, but given her improvements and her success against strikers without great takedown defense, Esparza is the more likely winner.
Official Pick: Carla Esparza by decision
Results: Carla Esparza won by split decision
One of the few dull spots on an otherwise epic card, Waterson's conservative range and wariness of the takedown combined with Carla's telegraphed entries both with strikes and takedowns led to a rather dismal outing where both women seemed to be attempting to fight while maintaining social distancing.
With the second round being by far the best for Waterson and the third saw Esparza edge it through activity and flurries, the fight should've come down to the scoring of the first round, where Esparza landed one nice right hand and a takedown, whereas Waterson stuffed several takedowns and landed five or six nice shots of her own.
The scorecards however bizarrely had 30-27 scores in favour of each fighter, with Carla picking up the only justifiable scorecard with a 29-28 that ended up getting her the victory. It could have gone either way and Waterson certainly could have gotten the nod, but her long periods of inactivity and refusal to lead made it impossible to really argue anything near a robbery.
Heavyweight (-265) Bout
Aleksei "The Boa Constrictor" Oleinik (58-13-1) vs. Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum (23-8-1)
Now this is a heavyweight matchup to get excited for.
The former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum has seen better days - from the time the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace shocked the world by tapping out Fedor Emilianenko in 69-seconds back in 2010, to the end of 2017, Werdum lost just three fights - a knockout loss to Stipe Miocic courtesy of pure recklessness sandwiched between two awkward decision losses to Alistair Overeem.
During that span he dominated the likes of Roy Nelson, Travis Browne (twice), and Walt Harris, knocked out Mark Hunt, submitted BJJ legend Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and dominated Cain Velasquez en route to a guillotine submission.
His wins over Cain and Fedor alone led many to claim Werdum as the greatest heavyweight in MMA history, but after his ill-advised charging of Stipe Miocic cost him his title, said claims quickly died down. A contentious decision loss to Overeem had many writing off Werdum's hopes of getting back to a title, but after two solid wins it seemed Werdum was well on his path back to contendership.
And then he took on Alexander Volkov in 2018.
While he dominated the early rounds, Fabricio seemed out of shape and looked to simply be killing time until the final bell came, something that isn't exactly advisable for a heavyweight. Gassed in the fourth round, Werdum began eating more shots and decided to simply trade with Volkov, eating a combination that put him down and saw him knocked unconscious via follow-up shots.
To make matters worse, after signing on to face Aleksei Oleinik later that year, Werdum tested positive for trenbolone and was suspended for two years as a result.
Werdum's career trajectory has clearly taken a major hit and it's unclear what kind of fighter we'll see on May 9 - at the height of his powers Werdum was a BJJ savant with a well-rounded striking arsenal and deadly knees in the clinch that was also extremely well-conditioned for a heavyweight, but his last performance seemed to show an aging fighter trying to pick up a paycheck rather than work his way back to a title.
In his way stands the likewise 42-year-old Russian submission artist Aleksei Oleinik.
In Werdum you have a more traditional Brazilian jiu-jitsu expert (albeit very mobile and extremely technical for a heavyweight) - in Oleinik you have a grappler known for ridiculous brute strength and a penchant for pulling off bizarre submissions as soon as he gets a hold of his prey.
His extensive 72-fight career may not have quite the name value that Werdum's does, but the fan-favourite's 24-year career is definitely not one to sneeze at.
Oleinik has remarkably finished all but four of his 58 wins, with an incredible 46 victories coming by way of submission. Among his victims are Mark Hunt, Travis Browne, and Mirko Cro Cop (via an incredibly rare scarf hold no less) - he's also one of only a handful of MMA fighters to pull off an Ezekiel choke (it's a common submission in BJJ using the collar and sleeve of a gi to choke an opponent, however without a gi it's extremely difficult to pull off but possible by using the forearms and tremendous strength).
In fact Oleinik is the only man to ever pull off this submission inside the UFC, and there he's done it twice, including one while he was mounted by his opponent. Including his fights outside of the UFC, Oleinik has tapped out an astounding 11 fighters with his signature move over the years.
In addition to his Ezekiel chokes and scarf holds, Oleinik has pulled off virtually every submission you can name, from heel hooks to guillotines to bulldog chokes to inverted armbars and the classic rear-naked choke.
On the feet, Oleinik is a sloppy brawler known for having a tremendous chin and winging overhand rights repeatedly when he fails to take down his opponents, a pretty effective move when your opponent is scared to death of grappling with you and thus wary of a level change for a takedown.
This style can lead to hilarious, sloppy heavyweight scraps between two exhausted bar-room brawlers, which often favour Oleinik given his finishing instinct whenever the fight touches the mat.
This is also where Oleinik falters however - if his opponents can either force Oleinik to strike for extended periods or can survive stints on the ground, Oleinik's laboured striking and overcommittment expose him to damage on the feet and quickly sap his cardio.
Alistair Overeem showed the perfect example of this late last year, stuffing the Russian's takedown attempts and skewering him with his vicious knees.
Against someone with truly remarkable BJJ credentials and a lifetime of grappling experience at the highest levels, Oleinik finds himself in a stylistic nightmare. With many of his takedowns coming from the clinch, he runs the risk of eating Werdum's deadly (and highly underrated) knees - if he does succeed in taking Werdum down, the likelihood of him submitting such an incredible grappler is low and he runs the risk of gassing himself out just trying to control Werdum even if he manages to avoid getting submitted himself, whose guard is legendary for a reason.
On the feet, he always has a puncher's chance courtesy of his flailing bombs, but unless Werdum has really let himself go or gets lackadaisical (which is a real possibility), Oleinik will be steeply overmatched in the striking department.
Oleinik's clearest path to victory comes from throwing caution to the wind and forcing Werdum into a brawl, where his chances of connecting on a big shot or possibly snatching up a neck during a transition (even if only to tire Werdum and not successfully finish him) are drastically improved.
It will be a good test to see where Werdum is currently at, and if all goes well, we'll see these two engage meaningfully on the canvas rather than engage in a purely striking match.
Official Pick: Fabricio Werdum by second or third round (T)KO
Results: Aleksei Oleinik won by split decision
Now this was a genuine surprise and a nice one to boot.
Most longtime fans struggled to see how Oleinik could find victory barring a massive decline from Werdum - there was certainly a decline in the Brazilian, but there was also an impressive gameplan and improvements to Oleinik that led him to victory.
His striking was still wild and reckless, but he used it to tremendous effect against Werdum, who looked rather out of shape and is showing his age - conversely, Oleinik looked in tremendous shape and pushed a ridiculous pace, throwing wild shots at a ridiculous clip for a man his size. The offensive onslaught overwhelmed Werdum, who managed to land some solid knees and shots himself but otherwise saw his offense drowned out by a sea of wild overhands, uppercuts, and hammering clinch strikes.
Werdum showed he could definitely still take a shot and as time passed he was able to get Oleinik down, where he put the Russian slugger in various compromising positions, but the savvy vet was able to survive and see his hand raised after 15-minutes of lung-burning action. It was a fun scrap and it was nice to see the fan-favourite earn his biggest win to date, even if one judge somehow scored two rounds for Werdum.
Fabricio meanwhile would likely be better off retiring now - he's certainly still talented and will beat lesser competition, but if he remains to fight younger, more hungry challengers he will instead see his name used as a stepping stone and just continue to take punishment.
Welterweight (170) Bout
Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (36-14-1) vs. Anthony "Showtime" Pettis (22-10)
To cap off the stacked preliminary portion of UFC 249, two of the most recognizable names in mixed martial arts square off in a rematch in the midst of career lows.
At one point in time, Anthony Pettis was on top of the world, hailed as the future of the lightweight division and MMA in general - he was an extremely dangerous striker with a superb submission game to compensate when fighters sought to take him down.
His "Showtime kick" made him a household name in the last WEC event before its roster was absorbed into the UFC ranks, the ridiculous kick (which Henderson actually survived) helping him capture WEC lightweight gold after an epic 5-round war that turned him into a star.
After a lay n' pray setback against Clay Guida in his UFC debut, Pettis tore through the lightweight division en route to capturing the lightweight crown (ironically by once again defeating Benson Henderson), earning wins over Jeremy Stephens, Joe Lauzon, and one Donald Cerrone, who he stopped midway through the opening round with a brutal body kick.
His superstardom continued to rise despite multiple injury layoffs - he became the first MMA fighter to grace the iconic Wheaties box before defending his title against Gilbert Melendez, submitting the scrappy vet in the second round and reaffirming his dominance over the division.
And then he met Rafael Dos Anjos.
Few expected Dos Anjos to win against the lightweight kingpin, but no one predicted just how badly Dos Anjos would dismantle Pettis.
Exposing just how poorly Pettis handled consistent pressure, Dos Anjos was relentless from the opening bell, smothering Pettis' ability to kick thanks to his constant forward movement and pace. Instead, it was Dos Anjos nailing Pettis with combinations and heavy kicks as Pettis tried to get away from the onslaught and reset himself to no avail.
A highly-respected Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt himself, Dos Anjos similarly smothered Pettis on the mat, taking him down at will and smashing him with heavy punches and elbows, controlling Pettis at every stage and easily shucking off his submission attempts.
Pettis showed remarkable durability and managed to survive the 25-minute beatdown, but it was a minor moral victory for the emphatically unseated champion.
From there Pettis would struggle mightily thanks to fighters following the blueprint laid out for them by Dos Anjos - pressure and wrestling have plagued Pettis' performances ever since, no matter how hard he has tried with different coaches to improve in his dealing with those aspects of the sport.
After going 18-2 to begin his career, Pettis has gone 4-8 in his last twelve outings. While he's still a dangerous fighter and is still competitive with the best in the division, he has failed to minimize the flaws in his style that are simply too easy to capitalize on by the top talent in the division.
That is part of the problem - Pettis has been facing the cream of the crop in the UFC's stacked lightweight division. His losses after Dos Anjos were to Eddie Alvarez, Edson Barboza, Max Holloway, Dustin Poirier, Tony Ferguson, Nate Diaz and the highly underrated Carlos Diego Ferreira.
During that span he has had flashes of success - in a short stint at featherweight (he missed weight in his subsequent fight there for an interim title against Holloway before moving back up) he submitted Charles Oliveira in a fun scrap, defeated Jim Miller and submitted Michael Chiesa, and in an ill-advised move up to welterweight he managed to shock the world by knocking out top-5 170-pounder Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson with a beautiful superman punch.
His very next outing against Nate Diaz at welterweight (who is also too small and has too poor of wrestling to compete at the top end of 170) showed exactly why he was unlikely to see much more success in the division, and as a result saw him drop back down most recently to face Carlos Diego Ferreira who utilized the classic anti-Pettis gameplan en route to a second round submission.
Regardless of his exciting nature and his past successes, Pettis is in dire need of a win just to keep himself relevant.
Similarly, his opponent at UFC 249 has also seen better days.
Throughout Cowboy Cerrone's lengthy and historic run in the UFC (and in the old WEC days), Cerrone has been highly regarded as one of the most versatile and dangerous finishers in the lightweight division that always seems to stumble right when he gets to the top of the heap.
Back in the WEC, Cowboy dominated everyone in the field yet came up short in both of his title shots as well as an interim title shot, the only losses on his ledger - twice losing to Benson Henderson, and once to Jamie Varner (albeit the Varner and first Henderson fight were close decisions).
After the WEC's absorption, Cerrone would similarly run through the division until he was knocking on the door to a title shot - he then ran into Nate Diaz, whose trash talking lured him into a brawl and his relentless boxing attack flustered and battered Cowboy over 15-minutes.
Cowboy would string together more victories, including a beautiful knockout of Melvin Guillard, before once again stumbling on the cusp of a title shot, this time getting finished by the afforementioned brutal body kick from Anthony Pettis.
Later on Cowboy would put together a stunning 8-fight winning streak, knocking out Jim Miller, Adriano Martins, and John Makdessi, submitting Evan Dunham and Edson Barboza, and taking home decision wins over Eddie Alvarez, Myles Jury, and even his old WEC rival Benson Henderson.
The streak saw Cowboy finally get his shot at UFC gold, only for him to be stopped in just 66 seconds from an onslaught of strikes from Rafael Dos Anjos, who had previously beaten him by decision.
Opting to try his hand up at welterweight, Cowboy saw immediate success in his new home, strangling his Brazilian counterpart Alex Oliveira and dusting the likes of Patrick Cote, Rick Story, and Matt Brown in quick succession.
Once again nearing a title shot, Cowboy saw his momentum ground to a halt as he was demolished by Jorge Masvidal; a decision loss to Robbie Lawler preceeded a brutal first round knockout at the hands of Darren Till.
Cowboy would see mixed success as he went 2-1 in his next three, dropping a decision to Leon Edwards in between defeating Yancy Medeiros and Mike Perry - knowing his true home was at lightweight, Cowboy opted to drop back down to 155 and as a result demolished Alexander Hernandez and dominated Al Iaquinta over 5-rounds to see himself earn a number one contender fight once more.
After starting off quite well against Tony Ferguson, Cerrone found himself at the mercy of Ferguson's superior hands and ridiculous pace, his kicking game overwhelmed by Ferguson's pressure and volume. As the minutes went by Cerrone's face showed the damage, and after breaking his nose Cerrone unwisely blew it between the second and third round which caused his eye to swell shut and forced a doctor's stoppage (which realistically just saved him from inevitably sustaining more damage from Ferguson's mounting assault).
He proceeded to get knocked out by Justin Gaethje in the first round of their bout, then gave Conor McGregor an easy 40-second return to action after getting stunned by shoulder strikes before eating a head kick.
While Cowboy is known to be a slow starter and quick finishers have exploited this in the past, it was an embarassing (non) performance from the grizzly vet in what was his most high-profile fight to date.
Now riding a three fight losing streak, Cerrone is in desperate need of a win - a loss here would only increase calls for the longtime fan-favourite to retire, which wouldn't be an unwise move for his health even if he does win on Saturday.
With both fighters being backed into a corner thanks to recent results, UFC 249 should see two hungry killers fight tooth and nail for their continued relevance (ironically, despite it being held at welterweight, this fight is far more relevant to the lightweight rankings and is best looked at as two lightweights not cutting much weight, as that's what it really boils down to).
Both fighters have relatively clear-cut blueprints established for defeating them - for Pettis, pressure, pace and wrestling is his downfall; for Cerrone, a focus on boxing, forcing him to lead with his hands, and particularly a fast start are his kryptonite. Both men are capable of exploiting the other's weaknesses (and from Pettis, we've already seen proof of that) but are also most comfortable engaging in a controlled kickboxing match than anything else.
The rematch will come down to who can impose their will first and, if an early finish doesn't come, who can maintain it.